Cold and snow. Much of Montana had already seen it before election day. Now parts of Central and Eastern Montana are finally waking up to it as well.

So what else might be in your election day forecast?

If you want an election forecast here in Montana, two of THE best guys to talk to are Erik Iverson and Evan Wilson with Moore Information Group, a prominent polling firm with offices in Montana and elsewhere across the country.

What do you think election day looks like and what can we expect?

We threw that question to Evan Wilson, who is a Vice President of Moore Information Group.

From Evan Wilson: 

No doubt, overall turnout in this election will be lower than the 2018 midterms, but I think we’re in for a few surprises tomorrow (Tuesday) in terms of the sheer number of Montanans who choose to cast their ballots in person. There’s a lot of things driving those numbers (COVID-era politics and switching to all-mail ballots, election integrity issues and state legislation, even recent population growth in the western part of the state). Keep in mind that in Montana, we’ve had big ticket races at the statewide level almost every cycle since 2012. But if you look at the historical midterm average since 2002, statewide turnout has been 60%. I think we’ll exceed that when all the votes are in tomorrow night.

The biggest question on my mind is who shows up? After all, these elections are as much about the voters casting ballots as they are about the political candidates running for office. Joe Biden may not be on the ballot this year but his agenda sure is. Gas prices are not going down and that hits us especially hard here in the Mountain West (just look at where the red is on this map). Interest rates are high, housing is increasingly unaffordable and inflation continues to persist. Just ask someone at the grocery store if they feel like they’re getting gouged over the price of bread – in a state where over five million acres of cropland is dedicated to wheat each year.

This election is a referendum on inflation, indoctrination and the Biden economy. That’s not to say that social issues like abortion or the role of parents in their children’s education isn’t also impacting turnout. It is, and we can see that to an extent on the polling numbers here in Montana. The truth is: we have a lot of things going on in this country at the national level right now and if these midterms are going to be about anything, it’s about getting this economy out of the ditch. We are quickly approaching the point where the cost of living the American dream – even in rural parts of the country - is unattainable for most folks.

I’ll leave you with this: Joe Biden is less popular today in Montana than President Obama was leading up to the 2010 midterms.. That election resulted in 68 Republicans being elected to the House in Helena and the GOP taking over the House of Representatives in Congress. Buckle up.


(By the way, Evan Wilson also happens to be the son of the late, great Dr. Craig Wilson who always provided great insight during his tenure at MSU-Billings.)  



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